A reader writes:
As a budding scientist who has been involved in the HIV field, it is rather frustrating to see media reports of the latest breakthrough in research without a full understanding of the findings and their significance (not that the medical establishment is not complicit … we put out these press releases in order to justify continued research money). As you are well aware, the field had been fraught with repeated false hopes and, after more than two decades of trying, we are no closer to a preventative vaccine than when we first started.
These findings today do not really change this fact. The same group has previously described another such neutralizing antibody but have been unsuccessful in their attempts to elicit this response in other individuals (this is the premise of a vaccine). The very fact that the vast majority of people fail to mount a significant immune response against the virus (unlike we do to most other pathogens) suggests that a vaccine may not even be possible in the first place. Pharmaceutical therapy, for better or worse, will remain our best response to this disease for the foreseeable future.
That being said, without any signs of the disease abating, research like this cannot be discounted. Just don’t expect results any time soon.
I don't. The Dish has long been dismissive of the search for a vaccine against HIV, but this did seem like a positive development. Another writes:
Thanks for that piece of news, Andrew. It actually brought tears to my eyes. I keep forgetting how much we suppress those hopes for a cure, then I read something like that and there's this flame, this glimmer of promise and I'm suddenly in tears. We forget how much that hope for a cure means to us, and how much we've pushed it aside and filed it away.
Right now I'm in this perfect storm of unemployment, heathcare crisis and AIDS.
Since I am, according to some, too lazy or drug-addled to find work, I've had to choose between my COBRA payments and my med copays and Dr. visits. I chose my COBRA payments for fear of that dreaded insurance lapse that would kick in pre-existing exclusions and not getting that all important certificate of coverage for my next (hopefully) job. Since I actually have a home (not sure for how long) and not totally homeless and destitute (yet) I don't qualify for a lot of help. Even if I did now, the state of GA, like many states, now have a Ryan White waiting list to get meds. Even my discount med cards from the drug companies didn't help enough to make them affordable.
So I'm waiting, waiting, waiting - so much has to fall into place, IF I can get a job in the next month or so, and IF they have good benefits, and IF the timing is just right, I might just be able to keep my insurance and go back on my life-saving meds. IF in the next month or so, I don't, I"m hitting several walls, my unemployment running out, my COBRA ending, foreclosure, bankruptcy. That's hoping too that after almost a year off my meds now, that I'm not blindsided by some totally preventable HIV related disease that would put me in the hospital and suddenly make any hope of this turning out well fly right out the window.
I have an older brother who is a wealthy retired executive from Philips, and very much a ditto head. They can't see giving me money since they would just be "enabling" me and keeping me from really looking a job (yes he really said that, almost a verbatim FOX talking talking point). Being a Christian though he did help me rewrite my resume. He keeps saying "just get private insurance" and even "just start my own company" but he hasn't a clue. With my meds running at $10,000 a month and having HIV/AIDS, I'm uninsurable through private health insurance, he doesn't understand that and almost refuses to believe it.
To address a lot of the current bashing of the unemployed: I'm a sharp hard working guy. I had the highest SAT scores in my class, I was pre-med at Wake Forest, two years ago I was making almost $60,000 a year, running an entire print production facility and doing it well. I've worked in consulting firms, F500 marketing departments, I have a killer resume. Yet...
So thanks again for that article. I do still hope. I've been in this crisis from the beginning, HIV+ back before there was even a test or a known cause. I had a partner who was only months ahead of me in progression, yet for every new drug that he just missed being able to take advantage of, I was able to. So our paths that at one time seemed to be almost lockstep veered apart and he died some 20 years ago and I'm still kicking around (I hope). I would just be crushed though that after living the miracle that being a 20+ year long-term survivor entails, that because of seemingly mundane things like a job and health insurance it might all be for nothing.
Here is an interesting story with an Oregon slant that reflects problems all states now face. Please consider Oregon budget stands at precarious crossroad.
Oregon government stands at the edge of a financial chasm as precarious as any in its 151-year history, hemmed in by the global recession, questionable spending decisions and a budget-draining combo of skyrocketing expenses and sluggish growth.There is much more in the article including a lengthy discussion of four problems Oregon faces.
Consider this sobering fact: State expenses, including payroll, health and retirement benefits, and debt payments, are slated to rise by nearly $4 billion over the next two years -- a 26 percent jump. During the same period, however, revenues to pay those expenses are expected to increase by a little less than $2 billion, or about 14 percent -- and that assumes a return to a robust economy.
Oregon simply can't keep up.
Lacking a substantial tax increase, which appears unlikely, the state won't have the money to offer the same level of services, pay and benefits to the same number of people.
The state has faced tough times before, but this crisis is a game changer, economists and political leaders agree. Past budgetary tricks, such as borrowing or sweeping money from other state funds, won't cut it.
The only way out, they say, is to make dramatic, permanent changes. The choices that lie ahead affect not only the state budget, but the kind of place Oregon will become: What kind of schools will we have? Which criminals will go to prison? Who gets help when they need it? What kind of business climate do we want? And how much do we all pay in taxes?
"The public is going to have to understand that we will have a very different Oregon in 2020 than we did in 2010," says John Tapogna, president of ECONorthwest, one of the state's top economic consulting firms.
- Problem 1: Our income is shrinking
- Problem 2: We have more people in need
- Problem 3: We've locked up a lot of money
- Problem 4: We can't grow our way out
Email Anecdotes
Here are some anecdotes from reader Denise in response to Oregon's Public Employee Retirement System (PERS) in Deep Trouble, Taxpayers on the Hook
Hello MishUniversal Problems
I Read your post on Oregon's Public Employee Retirement System's troubles with interest. We just returned from visiting a friend on the Oregon coast - and have spent many vacations in the state over the years.
The coast is struggling badly. There are homes for sale everywhere. Available commercial properties abound.
We saw housing developments with only a few completed homes, most empty, and often surrounded by empty lots with weeds many feet high. One condo complex located in the Florence marina has 30+ units available. Only two have sold despite a list of enticements. I wouldn't want to be one of the two owners - it was practically screaming bank foreclosure coming.
And despite that this is their high season - do or die for many coastal businesses - the roads were practically deserted, hotels available everywhere - and miles of empty beaches. We spoke with many restaurant and lodging owners and they all agreed that it's never been worse.
Hard to be optimistic for the economy of the beautiful Oregon Coast.
Denise
Those are problems all states face, not just Oregon.
It is one hell of a list of problems and states will face those even if the economy starts to grow at a fair pace.
Problem 3 is the crucial one. The "locked up" category includes pension promises that cannot be met and public union salaries way out of line with private sector salaries.
End of the Line for Meaningful Can-Kicking Delays
When it comes to state budgets, the low lying fruit has been picked. Indeed all the fruit has been picked and next year's harvest has been spoken for as well. Thus it's the end of the line for state's ability to kick the can down the road in a meaningful way, if employment does not dramatically pick up soon.
Here's a hint: it won't.
The only question is how long the administration and the Fed can keep this mess from flying apart like a pile of straw in a tornado. Obama's goal of course, is to delay that tornado until after the election. However, people are so fed up with Obama now, that election-wise it probably does not matter.
Obama is likely to lose the House in the upcoming election and enough seats in the Senate that he will not be able to pass his agenda. Hopefully, republicans will start doing a better job than they did under president Bush. Arguably that is a long shot. However, people have had enough of Obama's offering the worst possible combination of corporatism, socialism, and war-mongering that either side has to offer.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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